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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."