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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Shift in Position and Closed Issues

Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018

All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.